Sunday, January 30, 2011

Egypt and the US Loose Money Policy

I've said many times in the past that loose Keynesian monetary policy that is followed by Ben Bernanke will create more problems.  It was with interest that I read two writings over the last few days from people that I follow which suggest that United States loose money policies have a hand in creating the recent spate of uprisings in the Middle East.

The theory is that rampant creation of credit and money creates bubbles.  All that money needs to find a home. In this case there has been speculation in commodity and food futures creating huge increases in the prices for necessities.  In Tunisia and now in Egypt they are calling this the Jasmine Revolution.

From Mish over at GlobalEconomicAnalysis (a top ranked economics blogger):
Most of the increases in food prices are due to droughts in South America, floods in Australia, and poor growing conditions in many places.

However, Bernanke's "Quantitative Easing" policies combined with rampant credit growth in China and India have led to increased speculation in commodities. That speculation has forced up food prices.
Then from Chris Wiles, CFA at Rockhaven Capital I received an email with the subject, "You Say You Want a Revolution".  In the email was the following:

Another question to be asked is why now? First Tunisia, then Egypt, and Yemen, is there a common thread other than long-term oppression. Yes, there is a common thread to the timing of these uprisings. The Fed's massive printing of dollars has led to commodity inflation around the world, and commodity inflation (especially food) strikes the worlds poor the hardest. When you have 25%+ unemployment among the young and they are hungry, angry, and have the ability via social networks to organize, you get revolutions. 

Rising Inflation + Poor + Unemployed + Ability to Organize = Revolution
Bernanke continues to pursue policies that will create more credit and money.  The unintended consequences of such actions just are not part of his thinking process. 

James

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